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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 25 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Tusk
Tusk
9Class · 21 game
57%

Night Pulse

Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Worick · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 688 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 417 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
417 picks · 328 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
380 picks · 885 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
380 picks · 961 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 433 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
PARIVISION 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
47% · 112 games52% · 81 game
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 113 games48% · 62 games
Nature's ProphetWorick
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 80 games43% · 116 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit9Class
49% · 146 games51% · 113 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
61% · 11 games53% · 90 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed13:41
PARIVISION 65%Night Pulse 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
49% · 280 games50% · 64 games
Nature's ProphetKami
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinySatanic
42% · 289 games49% · 171 game
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Venomancer
Venomancer9Class
60% · 32 games55% · 124 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
54% · 97 games45% · 232 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
63% · 10 games49% · 117 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 79%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2