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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
47%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 16 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
614 picks · 305 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 517 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
582 picks · 724 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 331 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
511 picks · 763 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
507 picks · 582 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total66% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:4
PARIVISION 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
49% · 383 games50% · 232 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Weaver
WeaverSatanic
53% · 97 games52% · 247 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarDM
50% · 207 games46% · 306 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Slark
Slark9Class
51% · 84 games54% · 58 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
57% · 202 games41% · 130 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct38:12
PARIVISION 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSatanic
56% · 59 games51% · 336 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
49% · 226 games51% · 121 game
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarNo[o]ne
55% · 183 games44% · 204 games
AxeNo!ob
Axe
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
58% · 280 games41% · 233 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Batrider
Batrider9Class
55% · 370 games41% · 224 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 66%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2