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PREMIER SERIES · BO5
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 3:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 18 games
44%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
639 picks · 704 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 462 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 390 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 290 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
402 picks · 343 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1076 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 565 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 799 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total72% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:2
PARIVISION 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 22:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
58% · 8 games38% · 120 games
Troll Warlordrincyq
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
49% · 243 games52% · 200 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarSSS
54% · 249 games55% · 114 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
49% · 72 games34% · 15 games
IoGH
Io
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
50% · 159 games52% · 282 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct35:30
PARIVISION 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSatanic
44% · 362 games44% · 278 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Necrophos
NecrophosSSS
41% · 12 games56% · 181 game
Bristlebackrincyq
Bristleback
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
50% · 406 games54% · 219 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
Rubick9Class
52% · 74 games55% · 184 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Venomancer
VenomancerDukalis
47% · 41 game52% · 33 games
OracleGH
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct30:17
PARIVISION 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
51% · 21 game50% · 225 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
43% · 353 games51% · 128 games
Windrangerrincyq
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarSSS
51% · 331 game47% · 234 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Chen
ChenDukalis
52% · 217 games48% · 102 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Rubick
Rubick9Class
60% · 118 games49% · 351 game
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 72%
Series resultPARIVISION 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3