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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 20 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 18 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 14 games
71%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 22 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
47%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
742 picks · 351 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 289 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1180 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 259 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 472 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 708 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
383 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:41
PARIVISION 69%OG 31%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by OG in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
51% · 222 games52% · 222 games
Nature's ProphetYopaj
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingDM
51% · 89 games35% · 65 games
WindrangerNatsumi
Windranger
Ursa
UrsaSatanic
53% · 180 games53% · 214 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Chen
ChenDukalis
54% · 118 games43% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerTims
Spirit Breaker
Techies
Techies9Class
37% · 16 games55% · 90 games
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed35:41
PARIVISION 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by OG in 1:11:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
50% · 334 games50% · 134 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Kez
KezSatanic
49% · 22 games43% · 122 games
AbaddonForce
Abaddon
Enigma
EnigmaDM
58% · 128 games39% · 95 games
Primal BeastYopaj
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDukalis
52% · 45 games51% · 95 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
57% · 123 games48% · 206 games
TuskTims
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 78%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2