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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South America Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 20 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 18 games
61%

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 539 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 534 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
469 picks · 237 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
394 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 909 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:40
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
56% · 13 games41% · 237 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
52% · 405 games55% · 142 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
54% · 144 games44% · 248 games
PangolierFrank
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
51% · 200 games50% · 103 games
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Rubick
Rubick9Class
51% · 156 games48% · 188 games
RingmasterElmisho
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct26:13
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
52% · 62 games53% · 188 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
46% · 254 games43% · 74 games
Night StalkerFrank
Night Stalker
Largo
LargoSSS
56% · 75 games52% · 363 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
51% · 69 games45% · 127 games
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
50% · 292 games
Game 3prediction correct23:14
PARIVISION 71%South America Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
50% · 200 games52% · 163 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
45% · 174 games42% · 311 games
PangolierFrank
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarSSS
59% · 218 games46% · 154 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
63% · 76 games44% · 108 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDukalis
53% · 68 games
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 85%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3