BLAST Slam II · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 18 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 17 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 31 game
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 26 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 19 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 586 bans
Batrider
449 picks · 557 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 533 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 775 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 469 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 875 bans
Lion
398 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:10
PARIVISION 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherSatanic
Templar AssassinNatsumi
PangolierNo[o]ne
TinyMikoto
BristlebackDM
DoomWs
ChenDukalis
PhoenixKuku
Morphling9Class
ClockwerkJhocam
Game 2prediction correct21:23
PARIVISION 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
GyrocopterNatsumi
PangolierNo[o]ne
TinyMikoto
BristlebackDM
PhoenixWs
ChenDukalis
ClockwerkJhocam
Muerta9Class
LichKuku
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2