FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Cobraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
Dark Seersignature
DM · 19 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
Team Cobra
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 3 games
Jakiro
MoOz · 2 games
Juggernaut
K1 · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
K1 · 1 game
Bane
MoOz · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
669 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
563 picks · 578 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 225 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1159 bans
Mars
383 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 260 bans
Pugna
354 picks · 400 bans
Queen of Pain
352 picks · 938 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
PARIVISION 80%Team Cobra 20%
The model gave 80% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageSatanic
AbaddonK1
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
DoomFrank
EnigmaDM
LeshracPiPi
JakiroDukalis
WarlockMoOz
Alchemist9Class
DisruptorElmisho
Game 2prediction correct24:11
PARIVISION 81%Team Cobra 19%
The model gave 81% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
JuggernautK1
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
PuckPiPi
EnigmaDM
DoomFrank
Techies9Class
HoodwinkElmisho
Naga SirenDukalis
PhoenixMoOz
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 93%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2