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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 19 games
74%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
625 picks · 996 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 445 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 502 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 623 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
449 picks · 1067 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
449 picks · 285 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 586 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
408 picks · 498 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:16
PARIVISION 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
54% · 223 games54% · 78 games
ClinkzSkiter
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
42% · 310 games46% · 365 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
49% · 165 games46% · 229 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Chen
ChenDukalis
53% · 154 games51% · 309 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman9Class
50% · 210 games58% · 81 game
Treant ProtectorSneyking
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct22:24
PARIVISION 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
43% · 119 games33% · 5 games
NecrophosCorrupted
Necrophos
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
49% · 283 games57% · 394 games
BristlebackMalr1ne
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
49% · 157 games49% · 544 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
45% · 564 games50% · 598 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Tusk
Tusk9Class
48% · 449 games66% · 31 game
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed35:12
PARIVISION 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSatanic
49% · 467 games55% · 180 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
50% · 305 games51% · 100 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 527 games43% · 357 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorDukalis
45% · 19 games49% · 625 games
JakiroCr1t-
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon9Class
54% · 455 games51% · 511 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3