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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 33 games
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 801 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
445 picks · 310 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 800 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 671 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 873 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1057 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total55% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
PARIVISION 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaSatanic
48% · 101 game48% · 80 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
53% · 279 games44% · 174 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
50% · 231 game58% · 102 games
Monkey Kingbryle-
Monkey King
Tinker
Tinker9Class
46% · 61 game48% · 174 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
55% · 60 games51% · 202 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct28:14
PARIVISION 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
55% · 87 games50% · 122 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
44% · 125 games47% · 93 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Wraith King
Wraith KingDM
46% · 11 games56% · 94 games
Magnusbryle-
Magnus
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
46% · 75 games49% · 135 games
WindrangerBoxi
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
50% · 196 games60% · 50 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 55%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2