PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 2:3series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Liquidwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 29 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 25 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 24 games
Team Liquid
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 33 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
454 picks · 684 bans
Jakiro
396 picks · 396 bans
Phantom Assassin
364 picks · 734 bans
Bristleback
329 picks · 626 bans
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 554 bans
Muerta
327 picks · 199 bans
Beastmaster
305 picks · 580 bans
Pangolier
295 picks · 395 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head10 – 1
Model total61% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
PARIVISION 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSatanic
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
PangolierNo[o]ne
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Primal BeastNisha
Ringmaster9Class
RikiBoxi
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
JakiroiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed33:33
PARIVISION 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterSatanic
GyrocoptermiCKe
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
MedusaDM
Ember SpiritNisha
Terrorblade9Class
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
WarlockDukalis
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Game 3prediction correct33:14
PARIVISION 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSatanic
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
BeastmasterDM
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
PuckNo[o]ne
EarthshakerNisha
Riki9Class
RingmasterBoxi
JakiroDukalis
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Game 4prediction correct29:9
PARIVISION 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSatanic
MorphlingmiCKe
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
BeastmasterNisha
UnderlordDM
MarsSabeRLight-
Slark9Class
WindrangerBoxi
JakiroDukalis
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Game 5prediction missed31:42
PARIVISION 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:12:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSatanic
TimbersawNisha
KunkkaNo[o]ne
TerrorblademiCKe
UnderlordDM
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Bounty Hunter9Class
MuertaBoxi
WarlockDukalis
JakiroiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5