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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 23 games
43%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 18 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
76%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 15 games
60%

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
763 picks · 358 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 611 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
555 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 524 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 268 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 731 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1148 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
433 picks · 268 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:2
PARIVISION 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSatanic
51% · 218 games45% · 71 game
JuggernautYatoro
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
50% · 130 games47% · 354 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
43% · 235 games55% · 150 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
45% · 321 game65% · 121 game
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Techies
Techies9Class
49% · 31 game49% · 239 games
Disruptorrue
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:21
PARIVISION 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
51% · 175 games55% · 342 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
54% · 301 game48% · 243 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
55% · 305 games48% · 392 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Techies
Techies9Class
46% · 9 games41% · 69 games
Skywrath Magerue
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
51% · 398 games45% · 142 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct19:35
PARIVISION 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
54% · 128 games44% · 153 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
50% · 195 games44% · 183 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 155 games53% · 159 games
MarciYatoro
Marci
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
52% · 261 game47% · 150 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
54% · 122 games50% · 216 games
Ringmasterrue
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3