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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
47%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 20 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
72%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 351 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
609 picks · 303 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 546 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
586 picks · 732 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 335 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 543 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
510 picks · 597 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
510 picks · 764 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 8
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
PARIVISION 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSatanic
50% · 137 games41% · 121 game
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
52% · 153 games57% · 55 games
ViperLarl
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
46% · 116 games49% · 309 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batrider9Class
53% · 145 games57% · 111 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Chen
ChenDukalis
49% · 115 games47% · 70 games
Spirit Breakerrue
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct12:27
PARIVISION 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
51% · 318 games44% · 143 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Kez
KezSatanic
46% · 64 games61% · 15 games
ViperLarl
Viper
Lycan
LycanDM
51% · 139 games49% · 248 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
55% · 251 game52% · 179 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
48% · 88 games51% · 275 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2