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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 21 game
76%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 19 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 15 games
73%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 22 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
754 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 629 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
446 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
445 picks · 499 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 1180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 722 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 254 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
PARIVISION 59%Team Tidebound 41%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
48% · 191 game46% · 136 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 355 games53% · 143 games
TimbersawEcho
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
48% · 253 games53% · 180 games
Dark Seerniu
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
53% · 134 games49% · 197 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
50% · 60 games50% · 337 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct26:11
PARIVISION 62%Team Tidebound 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
48% · 163 games56% · 47 games
Pudgeshiro
Pudge
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
51% · 115 games48% · 294 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
45% · 233 games48% · 339 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
56% · 237 games47% · 196 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Chen
ChenDukalis
60% · 147 games33% · 19 games
Ioy`
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 67%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2