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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 27 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 31 game
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 30 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
573 picks · 802 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
443 picks · 288 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 824 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 857 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
408 picks · 638 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 332 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 998 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:3
PARIVISION 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
43% · 214 games48% · 119 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Wraith King
Wraith KingDM
51% · 33 games58% · 197 games
Doom33
Doom
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
53% · 380 games51% · 41 game
Kunkkabzm
Kunkka
Slark
Slark9Class
52% · 41 game45% · 228 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
55% · 57 games45% · 140 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct18:27
PARIVISION 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSatanic
54% · 225 games41% · 190 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
56% · 198 games41% · 24 games
Wraith King33
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
54% · 126 games45% · 205 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tinker
Tinker9Class
57% · 40 games54% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
45% · 193 games50% · 270 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct6:28
PARIVISION 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 20:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
47% · 161 game47% · 26 games
Anti-MageCrystallis
Anti-Mage
Magnus
MagnusNo[o]ne
49% · 150 games58% · 101 game
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Wraith King
Wraith KingDM
22% · 13 games52% · 255 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Medusa
MedusaDukalis
44% · 104 games51% · 45 games
TinkerWhitemon
Tinker
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
53% · 73 games53% · 74 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3