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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 21 game
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
62%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 14 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 23 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 899 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
490 picks · 524 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 418 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1054 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 674 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 584 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 574 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
PARIVISION 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNo[o]ne
55% · 94 games48% · 219 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Weaver
WeaverSatanic
46% · 123 games62% · 36 games
Faceless VoidParker
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomSSS
49% · 173 games47% · 152 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
46% · 372 games46% · 135 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
59% · 94 games50% · 314 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct28:36
PARIVISION 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 55:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSatanic
57% · 84 games50% · 171 game
MuertaParker
Muerta
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
49% · 241 game51% · 79 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarNo[o]ne
49% · 265 games45% · 183 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
43% · 358 games46% · 331 game
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
60% · 79 games53% · 263 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct24:19
PARIVISION 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
38% · 93 games57% · 212 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
50% · 190 games54% · 202 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
49% · 499 games47% · 107 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
48% · 151 game52% · 247 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDukalis
55% · 352 games48% · 517 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3