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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 14 games
79%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 11 games
55%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
502 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 487 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 471 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 641 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 327 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
PARIVISION 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
45% · 304 games55% · 221 game
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 248 games47% · 243 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDM
57% · 87 games50% · 210 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Chen
ChenPanto
59% · 121 game43% · 296 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tusk9Class
44% · 351 game52% · 141 game
PugnaPoloson
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 62%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1