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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 27 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 27 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 311 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 577 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 355 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
402 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 307 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 856 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 849 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total74% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:25
PARIVISION 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
50% · 150 games65% · 39 games
Lone DruidAme
Lone Druid
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
47% · 257 games50% · 150 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
45% · 214 games54% · 186 games
Sand KingNothingToSay
Sand King
Rubick
Rubick9Class
42% · 234 games58% · 462 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
42% · 24 games48% · 42 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 2prediction correct30:15
PARIVISION 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:04:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
48% · 304 games62% · 43 games
Lone DruidAme
Lone Druid
Huskar
HuskarNo[o]ne
59% · 55 games47% · 324 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
52% · 121 game47% · 191 game
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Rubick
Rubick9Class
45% · 165 games47% · 84 games
Techiesfy
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
50% · 34 games57% · 37 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 3prediction correct29:23
PARIVISION 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 57:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaSatanic
48% · 251 game51% · 29 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
49% · 322 games52% · 418 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 405 games51% · 282 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
45% · 92 games49% · 231 game
Rubickfy
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
51% · 168 games50% · 278 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 74%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3