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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Paseka Teamloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mosquito Clanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Paseka Team

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Egor · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Misha · 1 game
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Misha · 1 game
0%

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Michael · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 3 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 798 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 327 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 697 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 759 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 892 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 1078 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 536 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Mosquito Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Mosquito Clan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Paseka Team 27%Mosquito Clan 73%
The model gave 73% on Mosquito Clan — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedizzying
49% · 250 games55% · 205 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsDkFogas
49% · 239 games53% · 250 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Razor
RazorEgor
52% · 192 games40% · 79 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Ringmaster
RingmasterChuvash
51% · 31 game43% · 119 games
SnapfireYadomi
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMisha
56% · 115 games49% · 174 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct29:37
Paseka Team 28%Mosquito Clan 72%
The model gave 72% on Mosquito Clan — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdizzying
49% · 324 games43% · 389 games
BeastmasterParker
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyEgor
56% · 434 games54% · 309 games
BristlebackVitaly
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarDkFogas
48% · 87 games57% · 291 game
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaChuvash
50% · 156 games49% · 310 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskMisha
49% · 343 games38% · 45 games
SilencerYadomi
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteMosquito Clan · 89%
Series resultMosquito Clan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2