FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
Paseka Teamwin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paseka Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 8 games
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
541 picks · 798 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 566 bans
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 719 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 566 bans
Mars
343 picks · 467 bans
Slardar
324 picks · 912 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% Paseka Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:62
Paseka Team 43%Team Spirit Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Paseka Team in 1:00:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 57%
Series resultPaseka Team 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1