Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionПпасекаloss 0:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TTropicThunderwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
пасека
Grimstrokeoften banned
Accell · 1 game
Linaoften banned
xannii · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Larl · 1 game
Rubick
illusion · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Nix · 1 game
TropicThunder
Anti-Mageoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Disruptor
lilskrip · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Max · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
271 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 640 bans
Bane
243 picks · 180 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 419 bans
Lina
219 picks · 476 bans
Lion
211 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% TropicThunder
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% TropicThunder
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
пасека 44%TropicThunder 56%
The model gave 56% on TropicThunder — the game was taken by TropicThunder in 55:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNix
Phantom LancerWoE
DoomLarl
TidehunterMax
Invokerxannii
Disruptorlilskrip
Snapfireillusion
SilencerAccell
Model check result
Model favoriteTropicThunder · 59%
Series resultTropicThunder 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1