Pasika UA vs Zero Tenacity — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

PUPasika UAloss 0:2

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Zero Tenacitywin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pasika UA

No games played over 6 months.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptorsignature

Se · 41 game

61%

Puckoften banned

Mirage · 39 games

54%

Enchantresssignature

Se · 30 games

60%

Hoodwinksignature

dEsire · 25 games

64%

Underlord

Nefrit · 25 games

56%

Abaddonoften banned

Nefrit · 24 games

54%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Nande · 24 games

42%

Beastmastersignature

Nefrit · 23 games

74%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

560 picks · 649 bans

49%

Tusk

505 picks · 327 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

490 picks · 675 bans

49%

Centaur Warrunner

446 picks · 527 bans

54%

Snapfire

446 picks · 161 bans

49%

Hoodwink

420 picks · 202 bans

53%

Mars

387 picks · 521 bans

49%

Gyrocopter

369 picks · 497 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%

Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total54% Zero Tenacity

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:37

Pasika UA 50%Zero Tenacity 50%

The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo