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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 22 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
25%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 10 games
40%

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
551 picks · 566 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 389 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 521 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
326 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 718 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 604 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 442 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 69%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total83% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:29
Passion UA 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMoonlight
56% · 12 games51% · 51 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Venomancer
VenomancerBatyuk
51% · 33 games49% · 124 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCrystallize
45% · 173 games50% · 69 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Pugna
Pugnakreker
50% · 120 games51% · 312 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Tiny
TinyQBFY
48% · 313 games56% · 95 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Game 2prediction missed46:29
Passion UA 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
56% · 213 games51% · 64 games
DazzleSSS
Dazzle
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
50% · 276 games56% · 320 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Axe
AxeBatyuk
48% · 67 games47% · 81 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
49% · 211 games48% · 482 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
53% · 256 games40% · 76 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed44:16
Passion UA 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
57% · 309 games44% · 227 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
52% · 402 games45% · 123 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
54% · 80 games50% · 328 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Undying
Undyingkreker
57% · 139 games44% · 170 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
50% · 342 games48% · 424 games
Tuskkasane
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 83%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3