CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 2:3series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:3
1w Teamwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tiny
Crystallize · 24 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 18 games
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
niche · 10 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
572 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 412 bans
Tusk
380 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 523 bans
Dark Willow
333 picks · 202 bans
Terrorblade
331 picks · 718 bans
Nature's Prophet
329 picks · 615 bans
Puck
314 picks · 782 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total79% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:8
Passion UA 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleBatyuk
Monkey KingMunkushi~
DoomCrystallize
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Storm SpiritMoonlight
DawnbreakerSSS
TinyQBFY
Batriderswedenstrong
Warlockkreker
Disruptorkasane
Game 2prediction correct18:28
Passion UA 30%1w Team 70%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerCrystallize
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
HuskarBatyuk
UndyingSSS
LeshracMoonlight
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Warlockkreker
Pugnakasane
LionQBFY
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Game 3prediction correct18:30
Passion UA 30%1w Team 70%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerCrystallize
UrsaMunkushi~
PangolierBatyuk
AbaddonSSS
Queen of PainMoonlight
Storm SpiritSquad1x
LionQBFY
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Ringmasterkreker
Warlockkasane
Game 4prediction missed40:23
Passion UA 32%1w Team 68%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 52:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonCrystallize
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
BatriderBatyuk
Monkey KingSquad1x
LeshracMoonlight
MarsSSS
Pugnakreker
Warlockkasane
Dark WillowQBFY
Rubickswedenstrong
Game 5prediction correct9:24
Passion UA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCrystallize
MedusaMunkushi~
TimbersawBatyuk
Queen of PainSquad1x
Storm SpiritMoonlight
AbaddonSSS
Undyingkreker
Chenkasane
Dark WillowQBFY
Lionswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 79%
Series result1w Team 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5