PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
niche · 23 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 20 games
Aim Possible
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
491 picks · 634 bans
Muerta
470 picks · 401 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 583 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 503 bans
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 789 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 923 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Passion UA 88%Aim Possible 12%
The model gave 88% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 88%
Series resultPassion UA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1