PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 1:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
niche · 23 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 20 games
Apple City Gang
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
478 picks · 614 bans
Muerta
462 picks · 400 bans
Batrider
458 picks · 575 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 491 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
Magnus
405 picks · 908 bans
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Passion UA 74%Apple City Gang 26%
The model gave 74% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:57.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 74%
Series resultPassion UA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1