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DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
57%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 10 games
10%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
351 picks · 337 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 401 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 496 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
297 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 394 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 456 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Passion UA 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Passion UA 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 74%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2