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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 34 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 22 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 17 games
76%

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 26 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 22 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 17 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 587 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 527 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 573 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
371 picks · 182 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 407 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
362 picks · 271 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 713 bans
53%
Invoker
Invoker
331 picks · 922 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
Passion UA 46%Dragon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
43% · 343 games53% · 321 game
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomBatyuk
47% · 278 games44% · 179 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritniche
51% · 155 games53% · 267 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
47% · 248 games55% · 211 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Lich
Lichkreker
53% · 64 games54% · 110 games
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed52:18
Passion UA 48%Dragon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreCrystallize
51% · 17 games58% · 146 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinyniche
54% · 338 games56% · 235 games
Storm SpiritPanda
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBatyuk
47% · 48 games50% · 319 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
45% · 292 games45% · 185 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterkreker
47% · 254 games51% · 64 games
LichMary_y
Lich
Game 3prediction missed48:35
Passion UA 45%Dragon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Passion UA in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
49% · 92 games49% · 117 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Sniper
Sniperniche
54% · 54 games48% · 176 games
Templar AssassinPanda
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
56% · 293 games51% · 428 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
51% · 231 game45% · 46 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Batrider
BatriderFernans
47% · 274 games49% · 177 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 58%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3