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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 27 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 18 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 17 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%

eSpoiled

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 537 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
442 picks · 221 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
343 picks · 647 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 450 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 669 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 222 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 84 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:51
Passion UA 52%eSpoiled 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 1:05:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallize
43% · 97 games62% · 104 games
Ursassnovv1
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendniche
40% · 72 games52% · 202 games
WindrangerWein
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
48% · 118 games58% · 97 games
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Naga Siren
Muerta
MuertaQBFY
38% · 84 games
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
46% · 32 games
Game 2prediction missed11:24
Passion UA 54%eSpoiled 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallize
49% · 38 games49% · 114 games
Muertassnovv1
Muerta
Death Prophet
Death Prophetniche
44% · 5 games50% · 40 games
Bounty HunterWein
Bounty Hunter
Omniknight
OmniknightBatyuk
65% · 13 games54% · 32 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Windranger
WindrangerQBFY
46% · 74 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamankreker
49% · 56 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 60%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2