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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 30 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
86%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 12 games
67%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
397 picks · 310 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 745 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 171 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 301 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
299 picks · 799 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 614 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 532 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 478 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 28%
Hero pool strength58% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:28
Passion UA 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
51% · 148 games49% · 20 games
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Pudge
PudgeBatyuk
59% · 9 games48% · 75 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
46% · 88 games50% · 195 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
43% · 52 games65% · 77 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Undying
Undyingkreker
43% · 70 games
Game 2prediction missed17:38
Passion UA 64%eSpoiled 36%
The model gave 64% on Passion UA — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageCrystallize
56% · 31 game63% · 20 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
50% · 77 games55% · 141 game
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
52% · 162 games48% · 160 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
40% · 120 games50% · 100 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQBFY
42% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 76%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2