CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Sniper
jAMES · 2 games
Tidehunter
Actor · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ethereal · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
440 picks · 379 bans
Hoodwink
392 picks · 447 bans
Weaver
387 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 863 bans
Phoenix
366 picks · 758 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 522 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 507 bans
Jakiro
337 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
Passion UA 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursayowaai
Ember SpiritEthereal
Sand KingBatyuk
Primal BeastActor
Huskarniche
RubickjAMES
Chenflacko
WindrangerFernans
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Passion UA 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunayowaai
Shadow FiendEthereal
Mirananiche
Centaur WarrunnerActor
KunkkaBatyuk
HoodwinkjAMES
Shadow DemonFernans
Clockwerkflacko
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 54%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2