?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 21 game
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 19 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 9 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
flacko · 7 games
71%
Sven
Sven
yowaai · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 7 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
537 picks · 275 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
491 picks · 495 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
369 picks · 1014 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
316 picks · 148 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 532 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
305 picks · 500 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:20
Passion UA 54%Inner Circle 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallize
45% · 96 games54% · 209 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsBatyuk
45% · 255 games51% · 237 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
54% · 115 games51% · 110 games
SlardarNorma
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
53% · 303 games50% · 129 games
Enchantressflacko
Enchantress
Silencer
Silencerkreker
51% · 164 games47% · 248 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Passion UA 52%Inner Circle 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
52% · 149 games57% · 22 games
Broodmotheryowaai
Broodmother
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
53% · 264 games45% · 209 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
52% · 230 games48% · 267 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Silencer
Silencerkreker
47% · 172 games45% · 104 games
EnchantressFernans
Enchantress
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
59% · 49 games50% · 262 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct60:36
Passion UA 53%Inner Circle 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:05:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
56% · 308 games48% · 112 games
LeshracPanda
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBatyuk
47% · 227 games48% · 193 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
51% · 366 games48% · 175 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
55% · 83 games45% · 226 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
54% · 56 games48% · 334 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3