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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 219 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 346 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 690 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 862 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 405 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:43
Passion UA 55%Kalmychata 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
47% · 128 games57% · 97 games
LycanAnkou
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
52% · 225 games43% · 327 games
PangolierWoE
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
50% · 63 games45% · 140 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionkreker
59% · 79 games54% · 62 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Lion
LionQBFY
45% · 131 game
Game 2prediction missed9:28
Passion UA 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBatyuk
58% · 51 game41% · 67 games
Shadow FiendEthereal
Shadow Fiend
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
56% · 17 games42% · 137 games
Queen of PainWoE
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
53% · 96 games53% · 97 games
UndyingAnkou
Undying
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
60% · 46 games46% · 84 games
Shadow Demonraregods
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
50% · 175 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2