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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
411 picks · 374 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
377 picks · 191 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 884 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
313 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 236 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 136 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 807 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 680 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:27
Passion UA 52%Kalmychata 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:33.
Game 2prediction correct49:30
Passion UA 52%Kalmychata 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 47:27.
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Passion UA 52%Kalmychata 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 39:05.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3