PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 6 games
Jakiro
Fernans · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Rubick
Fernans · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Natus Vincere
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 13 games
Svenoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Tinysignature
Sancity · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
433 picks · 365 bans
Hoodwink
422 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
369 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 534 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:24
Passion UA 32%Natus Vincere 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangeryowaai
LunaYuragi
Templar Assassinniche
PuckSancity
BrewmasterBatyuk
Death ProphetNefrit
Enchantressflacko
TuskMalady
HoodwinkFernans
Nyx AssassinZayac
Game 2prediction missed47:11
Passion UA 31%Natus Vincere 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Passion UA in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenyowaai
MorphlingYuragi
TimbersawBatyuk
Sand KingSancity
Pangolierniche
VisageNefrit
HoodwinkFernans
TuskZayac
Phoenixflacko
Treant ProtectorMalady
Game 3prediction missed39:11
Passion UA 32%Natus Vincere 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Passion UA in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linayowaai
TerrorbladeYuragi
TimbersawBatyuk
Sand KingNefrit
Void Spiritniche
Earth SpiritSancity
HoodwinkFernans
RubickZayac
Chenflacko
EnigmaMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 82%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3