PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 35 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 18 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 17 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 565 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 410 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 755 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 73%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:54
Passion UA 23%Natus Vincere Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 57:33.
Game 2prediction missed33:26
Passion UA 23%Natus Vincere Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Passion UA in 46:12.
Game 3prediction correct34:30
Passion UA 23%Natus Vincere Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3