DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Neutralcamploss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 8 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
Neutralcamp
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 1 game
Visageoften banned
krol9ash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 508 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Neutralcamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Passion UA 55%Neutralcamp 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritniche
Bristlebackkrol9ash
MarsBatyuk
InvokerPanda
MiranaFernans
HoodwinkDelight
Marciflacko
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series resultPassion UA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1