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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Fernans · 5 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 4 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
yowaai · 4 games
50%

Night Pulse

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
V-Tune · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 352 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
410 picks · 451 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 828 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 870 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 750 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 518 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 503 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 577 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:43
Passion UA 32%Night Pulse 68%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Passion UA in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordyowaai
52% · 110 games42% · 85 games
LinaV-Tune
Lina
Windranger
Windrangerniche
43% · 127 games53% · 86 games
EnigmaKami
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
51% · 239 games52% · 174 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroFernans
49% · 79 games47% · 235 games
BatriderJANTER
Batrider
Oracle
Oracleflacko
73% · 36 games52% · 11 games
OmniknightHduo
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Passion UA 30%Night Pulse 70%
The model gave 70% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinyowaai
45% · 85 games48% · 112 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
49% · 266 games51% · 307 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
51% · 337 games55% · 218 games
Primal BeastKami
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
51% · 286 games52% · 308 games
RubickJANTER
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroFernans
51% · 210 games47% · 239 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 82%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2