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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 15 games
27%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 14 games
50%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
495 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 476 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 541 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 429 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
324 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 318 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:20
Passion UA 40%One Move 60%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
44% · 79 games50% · 193 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Puck
Puckniche
45% · 147 games63% · 137 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Doom
DoomBatyuk
52% · 183 games57% · 225 games
AlchemistSSS
Alchemist
Pugna
PugnaFernans
45% · 111 games43% · 19 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Tusk
Tuskflacko
47% · 205 games47% · 151 game
Muertanot me
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct14:29
Passion UA 39%One Move 61%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
41% · 262 games55% · 253 games
AlchemistWoE
Alchemist
Puck
Puckniche
45% · 233 games49% · 446 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBatyuk
48% · 61 game57% · 48 games
Night StalkerSSS
Night Stalker
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
52% · 265 games52% · 153 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
50% · 249 games54% · 170 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed36:18
Passion UA 39%One Move 61%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
50% · 190 games59% · 243 games
AlchemistWoE
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
44% · 158 games51% · 87 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNorma
49% · 81 game56% · 192 games
Sand KingDifference
Sand King
Batrider
Batriderflacko
47% · 164 games44% · 264 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
46% · 252 games54% · 59 games
Ogre MagiRein
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 66%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3