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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Palianytsiawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 12 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%

Palianytsia

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 8 games
88%
Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
kreker · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
kreker · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 294 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 441 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
325 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 542 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
294 picks · 276 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
292 picks · 800 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 471 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
291 picks · 409 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength62% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:9
Passion UA 48%Palianytsia 52%
The model gave 52% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
50% · 178 games48% · 24 games
Drow RangerCrystallize
Drow Ranger
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
48% · 140 games45% · 131 game
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Beastmaster
Invoker
Invokerniche
48% · 81 game50% · 251 game
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Batrider
Batriderflacko
52% · 254 games60% · 139 games
LeshracQBFY
Leshrac
Pugna
PugnaFernans
46% · 84 games51% · 192 games
Lionkreker
Lion
Game 2prediction missed13:30
Passion UA 51%Palianytsia 49%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
50% · 70 games53% · 226 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
48% · 278 games62% · 33 games
HuskarMoonlight
Huskar
Razor
RazorBatyuk
50% · 100 games46% · 165 games
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaFernans
48% · 73 games51% · 165 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
49% · 187 games48% · 119 games
Marcikreker
Marci
Game 3prediction missed23:37
Passion UA 52%Palianytsia 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
59% · 136 games53% · 186 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
47% · 142 games40% · 49 games
Night StalkerfortniteMan
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaFernans
54% · 93 games49% · 222 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
56% · 211 games44% · 154 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Weaver
Weaveryowaai
53% · 203 games43% · 174 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultPalianytsia 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3