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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Palianytsialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 14 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 13 games
31%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
20%

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 15 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 9 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 8 games
38%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
kreker · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 443 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 262 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 550 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
300 picks · 256 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 397 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
287 picks · 235 bans
44%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 399 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Palianytsia
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:29
Passion UA 49%Palianytsia 51%
The model gave 51% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Passion UA in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingBatyuk
54% · 100 games41% · 90 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeryowaai
39% · 15 games48% · 293 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
45% · 380 games49% · 280 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Batrider
BatriderFernans
55% · 324 games52% · 186 games
Lionkreker
Lion
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
55% · 226 games51% · 196 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed27:22
Passion UA 48%Palianytsia 52%
The model gave 52% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
48% · 166 games50% · 109 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Tiny
Tinyniche
47% · 237 games54% · 159 games
Sand KingfortniteMan
Sand King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
48% · 90 games59% · 190 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickFernans
44% · 216 games51% · 169 games
Alchemistkreker
Alchemist
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
49% · 151 game49% · 233 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 52%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2