European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
niche · 23 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
Quantum Team
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 10 games
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
takizawa · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Fezor · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 674 bans
Jakiro
400 picks · 399 bans
Phantom Assassin
354 picks · 720 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 611 bans
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 531 bans
Muerta
317 picks · 191 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 580 bans
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Passion UA 59%Quantum Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritniche
Phantom AssassinLukas
Sand KingBatyuk
Ember SpiritRvze
UrsaCrystallize
Tidehunterkolya_kaBAN68
Keeper of the LightQBFY
Tusklupsione
Snapfirekreker
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Passion UA 58%Quantum Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
Drow RangerLukas
Puckniche
Primal Beastkolya_kaBAN68
DoomBatyuk
Sand KingRvze
Dark WillowQBFY
Windrangerlupsione
Ringmasterkreker
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 64%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2