CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinyoften banned
niche · 29 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 18 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
Quantum Team
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 13 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
561 picks · 625 bans
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
Jakiro
459 picks · 430 bans
Terrorblade
394 picks · 831 bans
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 323 bans
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 826 bans
Shadow Shaman
358 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Passion UA 48%Quantum Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMoonlight
TerrorbladeLukas
Drow RangerCrystallize
Storm SpiritAinkrad
MarsBatyuk
Dark SeerPalantimos
Marcikreker
DisruptorMary_y
Shadow ShamanQBFY
Invokeremptiness
Game 2prediction correct26:36
Passion UA 47%Quantum Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallize
MuertaLukas
DawnbreakerBatyuk
BrewmasterPalantimos
Death ProphetMoonlight
Storm SpiritAinkrad
BatriderQBFY
Rubickemptiness
Tuskkreker
UndyingMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 53%
Series resultQuantum Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2