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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Jellyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 25 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%

Royal Jelly

Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ani-san · 1 game
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
708 picks · 345 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
592 picks · 625 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1157 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 683 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
402 picks · 255 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
388 picks · 399 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
347 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:22
Passion UA 68%Royal Jelly 32%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
51% · 198 games56% · 290 games
BristlebackMiyaoo
Bristleback
Mars
MarsBatyuk
44% · 220 games55% · 324 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
49% · 108 games48% · 418 games
Snapfireani-san
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
45% · 325 games
Pugna
Pugnakreker
46% · 181 game
Game 2prediction missed45:41
Passion UA 68%Royal Jelly 32%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 51:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
49% · 102 games46% · 264 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoonlight
54% · 313 games50% · 103 games
Night StalkerMiyaoo
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsBatyuk
47% · 146 games55% · 445 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Silencer
Silencerkreker
47% · 120 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
51% · 131 game
Game 3prediction correct36:12
Passion UA 69%Royal Jelly 31%
The model gave 69% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
46% · 188 games45% · 214 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperBatyuk
56% · 10 games50% · 118 games
Dark SeerMiyaoo
Dark Seer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
49% · 241 game57% · 272 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
57% · 130 games
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
42% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 81%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3