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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 32 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 29 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 23 games
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Batyuk · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 55 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 50 games
66%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 44 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 42 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
749 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 295 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1180 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 263 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 486 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 715 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Passion UA 53%Runa Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
53% · 241 game48% · 321 game
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Clinkz
ClinkzMoonlight
56% · 12 games54% · 43 games
Huskarnicky`cool
Huskar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
57% · 89 games47% · 241 game
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
54% · 149 games39% · 71 game
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
50% · 268 games46% · 83 games
DazzleHduo
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed38:46
Passion UA 53%Runa Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Runa Team in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMoonlight
57% · 28 games45% · 220 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
55% · 408 games49% · 122 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Pudge
PudgeCrystallize
53% · 77 games49% · 215 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
50% · 323 games54% · 183 games
Shadow Demonqueezy
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionQBFY
51% · 183 games40% · 279 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Game 4prediction correct13:28
Passion UA 49%Runa Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
47% · 335 games53% · 356 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Undying
UndyingBatyuk
52% · 165 games51% · 167 games
Void Spiritnicky`cool
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
43% · 299 games51% · 371 game
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
52% · 230 games52% · 346 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
50% · 253 games45% · 42 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3