DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Türkiyeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 19 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 17 games
Team Türkiye
Lich
Stoic · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 9 games
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 389 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 585 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 436 bans
Beastmaster
338 picks · 802 bans
Phoenix
328 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
Passion UA 53%Team Türkiye 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckniche
UrsaRetsu
GyrocopterCrystallize
TuskG.T.I
PangolierBatyuk
BatriderJeezy
Phoenixkreker
ZeusStoic
Nyx AssassinFernans
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Passion UA 52%Team Türkiye 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeBatyuk
MedusaRetsu
GyrocopterCrystallize
PangolierG.T.I
Earth Spiritniche
PhoenixJeezy
Ogre Magikreker
ClockwerkStoic
BatriderFernans
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 56%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2