CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Teawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
Leshrac
Moonlight · 21 game
Snapfire
kreker · 21 game
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
Team Tea
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Muerta
dEsire · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
517 picks · 265 bans
Disruptor
481 picks · 483 bans
Puck
364 picks · 991 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 376 bans
Mars
301 picks · 514 bans
Warlock
301 picks · 146 bans
Earthshaker
300 picks · 493 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Passion UA 48%Team Tea 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCrystallize
SvenShigetsu
MarsBatyuk
LycanCloud
Primal BeastMoonlight
PuckWorick
Phoenixkreker
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Shadow DemonQBFY
HoodwinkdEsire
Game 2prediction correct18:39
Passion UA 47%Team Tea 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzCrystallize
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Void SpiritBatyuk
BeastmasterCloud
Ember SpiritMoonlight
Sand KingWorick
SnapfireQBFY
HoodwinkdEsire
Enchantresskreker
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 54%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2