DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 21 game
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
Silencersignature
kreker · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
the bug
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 4 games
Sven
Boris · 4 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Dragon Knight
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 3 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Snapfire
Newsham · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
575 picks · 289 bans
Disruptor
509 picks · 514 bans
Puck
381 picks · 1051 bans
Pugna
341 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
338 picks · 174 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 156 bans
Mars
335 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:22
Passion UA 66%the bug 34%
The model gave 66% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaCrystallize
BroodmotherBoris
TidehunterBatyuk
EarthshakerNyx
PangolierMoonlight
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Jakirokreker
PudgeNewsham
HoodwinkQBFY
Dazzleempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct45:26
Passion UA 65%the bug 35%
The model gave 65% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackBatyuk
GyrocopterBoris
AbaddonCrystallize
PudgeNyx
PangolierMoonlight
DoomiAnnihilate
Hoodwinkkreker
Disruptorempyrean5
Shadow DemonQBFY
ClockwerkNewsham
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 77%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2