?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 326 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 691 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 762 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 392 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 884 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:39
Passion UA 54%Winter Bear 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallize
29% · 3 games48% · 33 games
ClinkzDelight
Clinkz
Sand King
Sand KingBatyuk
56% · 5 games
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
53% · 13 games
Muerta
MuertaFernans
45% · 7 games
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
67% · 5 games
Game 2prediction correct55:36
Passion UA 55%Winter Bear 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:03:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
48% · 102 games52% · 272 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
46% · 72 games
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
51% · 83 games
Silencer
Silencerkreker
50% · 12 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterFernans
43% · 3 games
Game 3prediction missed17:37
Passion UA 55%Winter Bear 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckniche
69% · 9 games41% · 44 games
ClinkzDelight
Clinkz
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
29% · 3 games
Doom
DoomCrystallize
56% · 14 games
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
67% · 5 games
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
59% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 65%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3