Passion UA vs YNGBLD — prediction EPLS 22 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3

result vs prediction

Passion UAwin 2:0

series probability

77%23%

probability at match start · final 2:0

YNGBLDloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink

Fernans · 30 games

53%

Tuskoften banned

flacko · 28 games

43%

Batrideroften banned

Fernans · 24 games

46%

Morphlingoften banned

yowaai · 21 game

48%

Timbersawsignature

Batyuk · 21 game

62%

Pangolieroften banned

niche · 19 games

58%

Ember Spiritoften banned

niche · 17 games

47%

Enchantressoften banned

flacko · 16 games

25%

YNGBLD

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

481 picks · 668 bans

51%

Clockwerk

428 picks · 503 bans

54%

Pangolier

377 picks · 552 bans

48%

Dark Willow

360 picks · 185 bans

49%

Batrider

331 picks · 358 bans

50%

Luna

329 picks · 433 bans

55%

Invoker

313 picks · 860 bans

50%

Dragon Knight

310 picks · 598 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%

Hero pool strength51% YNGBLD

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total77% Passion UA

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct41:9

Passion UA 66%YNGBLD 34%

The model gave 66% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo