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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
47%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 33 games
39%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 30 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 704 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 542 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
426 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 1006 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
397 picks · 915 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total51% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:37
Passion UA 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallize
48% · 238 games54% · 235 games
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Slardar
Slardarniche
53% · 101 game49% · 184 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBatyuk
52% · 101 game47% · 243 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaFernans
46% · 368 games49% · 197 games
LionPablo
Lion
Zeus
Zeuskreker
43% · 141 game59% · 90 games
Elder TitanLeBronDota
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed50:35
Passion UA 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 47:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
56% · 301 game54% · 63 games
Nature's ProphetRetsu
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
49% · 532 games52% · 288 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
45% · 393 games47% · 607 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
49% · 467 games52% · 364 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Marci
MarciFernans
47% · 208 games51% · 579 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct31:45
Passion UA 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
49% · 367 games43% · 190 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
55% · 183 games51% · 145 games
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBatyuk
50% · 196 games48% · 393 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Weaver
WeaverFernans
52% · 127 games53% · 352 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
50% · 399 games49% · 192 games
MarciLeBronDota
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3